Sept 26- 2013
(On a train bound to nowhere… um back from Chicago to Milwaukee)
For the last two days I spent my time at a convention in Chicago put on by Hanley Wood for the marketing leaders for manufacturers of building supplies. Here is what I learned and my thoughts there.
It was called Future Forward, Hanley Wood 2013 foundations. #hwfoundations for you twitter freaks, more on that later!
If you are still reading this…you must be in the trades. And welcome!
First, thank you for Pro Sales and Hanley Wood asking me to be on a panel discussion group. They paid for my stay at the Ritz-Carlton as well as a round trip train ticket. Man, I love the train. Get a ton of work done, relax. The ONLY way to travel Mke to Chi in my opinion!
Ok, on to the goods.
The first two speakers were economists and strategists and they focus on the numbers and data of the United States building economy.
Here’s the stats you need to know:
Building index up 11 of 12 months
Increased activity for 6 consecutive quarters
Phoenix is hot.
Good lots are hard to find. The “surplus” of lots is misleading. Good lots are going, going, GONE, in most markets.
Mortgage rates will stay historically low, and even if they go up they will not effect the market until it hits over 12%! That’s splendid news.
Housing recovery is still in its infancy a lot of growth is COMING!
Here’s a good quote/joke and funny: THE MARKET IS SO BAD I CANT SLEEP AT NIGHT, I SLEEP LIKE A BABY I WAKE UP EVERY 2 HOURS AND CRY!
2014 best year since 2007, total spending perspective (residential spending)
2011, spending on construction, falling more than 1/2
Remodeling bigger than new construction
2014 forecasting stronger than this … a year to two year… to surpass…
maintenance sector is growing, and new con finding gas
New home prices up 22%.
Investors helped get rid of homes… % of investor buying slowing so remodeling coming back up.
12%of those surveyed believe we need to be worried about mortgage rates according to hanley wood!
life drives housing NOT the fed
51% change in household size
39% favorable interest rates, gone up prior to this ?
31% simply tired of current home, best indicator of pent up demand 22% said increase in income
NOT your median person
Gen y, rental market strong. gen yers expecting rent to go up 4.2% , they don’t care, they love it and will continue to rent are they planiing to rent or buy? looking to staying rent. they don’t expect to change
24% of the future new home demand is baby boomers, 24%!
plunking down a lot of cash! active adult community. 75% cash up to all ca$h.
bougie– new catch phrase (what?)
anything upscale, latte instead of coffee it’s so bougie much more upscale buyer
quality is #1 issue when building ! QUALITY, materials significant!
share of the largest builders in the country is growing
responsible for over 1/2 of the homes builders
200 largest builders to the 60%! woah.
more for land, means most expensive homes. since land is more, house has to be more.
cost material labor has not kept pace, builders are more profitable.
dealer economic look out. 68% market would be up. 2013 would 81% up up 24%, 83% up over 10%.
location matters… above average madison HOT our market orange (2nd best)
red hot in our areas!
1 mil can’t hold us!
1.16 mil starts 23%
538 new home sales 22%
brad hunter, jonathan spoke
what inning are we in…
better metaphor, a indy race.
a skill driver knows to brake during the turn how you manage in the turn will be how you come out
15-20% in a year for home prices cost… fast!
Going to slow next year, competition from more affordable existing homes
Affordabilty WILL suffer
Real up turn in mortgage rate
Entry level, banks loosening up, but down payments coming low (school debt big factor) new kind of g.i. financing…generous in laws
Buying a bigger house now than last time around. Despite all what is happening hasn’t effected volume or home prices…
the haves or our society.
entry level is MISSING yet… kb homes sales are down…because they sell to entry level buyer and home prices up 22%. whew.
how do they deal with mortage rates that are invetible. will they pay less for home? sure…but really what they will rely on …drive til you qualify….
lack of development loans, lot shortages will resolve as funds become available
private builders going public or being acquired. more public builders
the fed has spoken!
the punchbowl is being topped off again, they will not be reducing purchase of bonds. the feds going to taper… no taper. seems like they decided they are too addicted to the financing of America.
Inventories are very very tight in many parts of the country
don’t want to go to 2005 levels. sensible level. 1.5 or 1.6 starts maybe 3 years away
Supply vacant new homes industry spiking. supply was too high.
leading indicator…. was supply
lot supply…. coming down and in fact, lot shortages. 100 months of supply to 45 months supply.
running out of lots…having to buy lots back to peak prices… in some parts of the country
a and b sub markets, lot shortage… most of the supply is spoken for in some markets
lots are being developed. 161k lots to be built, down from a peak of 1mil in 2006. future lot count is 700k
where is it occuring …texas booming phoenix booming.. reno is dead, worst
where is the market headed in 2014?
2/3 of clients think up only 14% look at slow down
luxury homes going up up up
kitchen big opportunity, than bath
architects really got their butt kicked
decidedly they are more optimistic, building index on arch is up 11 consecutive months
more optimistic is office stuff, bread and butter. 28-34% up ward trends
31% of people want to buy a house, tired of house in, means they delayed gratification, means they will REMODEL
sense that homeowners delayed doing something happier place for their family ready to move ahead
2014. residential remodeling, see the big JUMP in custom housing.
small dealers still go to local banks. those banks were regulatory backed away. beginning to rebound, architects are aware of that.
bldg product manufacturer= dealer. contractors architects and builders and contractors every day. optimistic. busy again. busy getting busier. dealers beginning to create inventory again,
200 top builders in the us, 60% of the activity of the usa. 60% closing this year was of the 200 builders.
Big opportunity, double anything else, WINDOWS!
best housing markets, fl, salt lake city, phx, sc, al, dc, nc, co, tx, az (hot!)
nc, buffalo, stx, tx, tx, tx, tx, nc, ny, ok
least optimistic group is the manufacturers
i am here with the manufacturers
HOUSING RECESSION IS OVER AND IT’S GONNA GET BETTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS
pain is a stressor. numbers may go 22% up in starts in 2014. D E F E N S E.
ADD LABOR! PAIN, DISORDER AND UNCERTAINTY, pain points into opportunities into solutions.
*** social media ***
Day 2. Worked out, had some coffee, you know the usual hotel routine. Didn’t find a wing man the night before, in bed by 10.
@cryswashington gave a really high energy, informative, presentation on how to use social media.
How can my brand connect with key decision makers in this space each network has a culture linked in business facebook, community, emotional Triggers, most social of social facebook is to build relationships with people twitter culture is real time information and adding value. Youtube feeds the other social networks, connect with things that are visual VIDEO IS KING FOR CONTENT
1. gather intellegince
* sales research
2. get found
3. compliment trade show/magazine ads/purchased media
“filetype search…. xls” home builder association filetype:.xls
go to linked in and ask for introduction via email.
32-49 year olds lives on email.
linkedin message, gen y. social media platforms.
baby boomers gonna have to call em.
use technology to be more efficient, not less
facebook graph or email on google, find their phone number
if you know there first and last name
“joel fleischman” “*@drexelteam.com ”
active listening campaigns on social media
news breaks first on twitter good or bad
googlealerts (basically free tool track when someone mentions drexel) tweet beep specifically
actively listen to thank people!!! – USE YOUR PERSONAL NAME WHEN USING YOUR BUSINESS FACEBOOK PAGE, ADD THAT TOUCH! (thanks for the message about your windows. – Joel)
social media GET FOUND, low hanging fruit. SHOW UP
concept of key words, linked in runs of key words as well
wonderful to build BACK TO WEBSITE, that’s the hub.
like sending a limo to going to website for a shack.
form partnerships as well.
post testimonials… from contractors MOST EFFECTIVE
installers! installers! installers! ultra lightweight all purpose
joint compound for examples
don’t get caught up in the numbers
b2b numbers smaller, that is ok…
testimonial booth at the expo… ???….!!!!
build and reinforce brand
attach your name. as you post. a really good connection, listen, thanks and use your first name.
how to do it. SEND MONTHLY SNAP SHOT comments, shares…wonderful and a guage, not sales click throughs, coming from facebook and twitter, etc!
mirror pages, promo or something
email list growth, track it. own the data.
leads that turn into sales, track it, track it, track it. in house sales, pretty simple, to do spreadsheet on metrics!
taylor made golf guy…. the CEO Mark KING OF GREEN BAY! was next on
good company in future, new bright smart talent and keep it.
when you are trying to move your organization, what gets in way of success, difference speed of which it is changing. managing a business, uncertainty makes it more difficult, lots of pressure.
what is driving successful companies today: CREATIVITY he says the world will never look like it did before.
13 years incredible journey
revenue went up, what did they do to break thru???
fall of 199, he is given the job, parent company adidas i need a 3 year strategic business plan they told him.
300 mil losing money by 2002 we will be in the black. not good enough1
if the leaders of the company say it’s ok to be mediocre, who are we to be.
he said why don’t we become the best performance golf brand in the world.
an environment wants to work in our company… that’s a lot sexier plan
double size of company and be profitable
story 2 reasons:
a lot of it happened. we wouldn’t of done it. gosh, we are going to be great. people starting to be excited about thinking about doing things if you want to drive creativity into your organization. create a gap between aspiration and resource.
CREATE A GAP BETWEEN ASPIRATION AND RESOURCE.
from that gap comes all of that new thinking, trying to push the envelope.
any company should not be afraid to aspire to do great things. mark king
“not gonna work” …. “my bat. my ball. my game.”
change the rules of the game
i really think that every industry is waiting to be reinvented. how do i do better, faster, and less expensive.
if you don’t do it differently you are not going to succeed.
stuck at 700mil… so then what, how did they stay on top…
most leaders face this all the time. that’s why you see them rise and fall…
he said the reason the speed of change in market place. legacy systems, if it’s not always in transformative state, going to lose its space.
vision strategy from the top, then execute. great way to control, NOT COOL.
flexibility and speed and new thinking!
where every team member takes control of creating the future. it’s my job to make the company better.
really a difference of command and control. tip it upside down.
THINK! THINK! THINK!
EVERY FRIDAY MORNING, category managers come in.
instead of painting metal with black why don’t we paint them white.
i said, because bill has really stupid ideas.
market share went from 35 to 52% with one decision.
without his ability to raise hand it never would of happened…
BETTER CHEAPER FASTER AND MORE FUN
2014 GOAL- DREXEL BUILDING SUPPLY
Innovation can come anywhere…it doesn’t have to be technology!
Don’t accept follow the gender trend. break thru.
Find your white paint. (Taylor Made’s white drivers.) You find it by asking more people to think about it!
think about things … think!
if you want to grow your business,,, there are only 2 ways, steal market share or come up with something different or follow trend.
great companies ARE GREAT because the people that work there are inspired to do great things. #GOOSEBUMPS
unleash the potential!
cant’ be done… do it!
i truly believe… EXTRORDINARY THINGS HAPPEN because leaders have the courage to do it. willing to create a new lense.
distribute leadership, their ideas not your ideas. and takes courage.
He was told by her oldest daughter an over achiever:
Our greatest fear is that we are powerful to beyond measure.
success of the month. an online show and bring people in every month.
huge online social network, start an idea and join in…
more touring professionals play our equip than the other 5 combined.
john daly, i love her a little bit more than i hate her.
take risks, push the envelope. we don’t penalize failure.
That’s the random notes. Thanks for sticking with me.
– – Joel Fleischman. Joel is the president & solution provider for Drexel Building Supply. (drexelteam.com). You can follow him on twitter: @JoelmFleischman. He has provided solutions for builders and their clients since 1996 and a whole bunch of other stuff that you probably don’t care about.
Sent from my iPad